SAE Current Projects
Integrated Crisis Early Warning System (ICEWS)
Integrated Crisis Early Warning System (ICEWS) Project: SAE is currently part of a larger set of researchers developing a geopolitical early warning system through the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency's (DARPA) ICEWS program. Since its inception in 2007, ICEWS has been focused on the PACOM AOR (with plans/interest to expand throughout the world) and ICEWS is engaged in software integration exercises with STRATCOM's ISPAN program. The system provides an analytic capability to monitor, assess, and forecast evolving global crises in near real time. A key element of that system is a set of algorithms that parses news media reports and transforms the unstructured text into structured indices reflecting who is doing what, to whom, when, where, and how around the world (iTRACE). A second part of the system uses the transformed data to forecast (iCAST) events of interest with 80% accuracy. A third capability includes real time analysis of blogs and news to uncover who is saying what about whom and how such sentiment (iSENT) affects government and dissident interactions and events. SAE is a key subcontractor on the project as they aided in the development and maintenance of the event data collection efforts for iTRACE, developed the automated sentiment capabilities for iSENT, and generated models for iCAST.
Automated Sentiment Analysis
SAE is maturing their current automated sentiment technology under the Office of Naval Research's Human Social, Cultural, and Behavior (HSCB) Modeling program. The goal is to monitor and analyze blogs for sentiment that has impacts on political actions and events on the ground.
Pathways
SAE is involved with a larger set of researchers on the Pathways project via the Combating Terrorism Technology Support Office's HSCB program. The goal is to develop an integrative system that monitors, models, and produces analysis for operators interested in specific events of interest. In particular, SAE will provide counterfactual modeling capabilities as part of this program to better understand how specific US actions affect political stability.
SAE Previous Projects
Strategic Multilayer Assessment Program
Strategic Multilayer Assessment Program: SAE was involved in consulting on various Strategic Multi-Layer Assessment (SMA) program projects which is part of the Joint Staff/J-3, STRATCOM/GISC, and the Rapid Technology Program Office within the Department of Defense Research and Engineering. In particular, SAE analysis was used in reports on assessing the ability of the US to anticipate rare events which specifically referred to catastrophic terrorist events, including the use of a weapon of mass destruction. SAE analysis focused on an assessment of global and regional nuclear smuggling activities.
CAPES
CAPES specifically focuses on assessing shifts in behavior of violent or potentially violent groups for the Air Force Research Laboratory. SAE collected and analyzed data on particular groups activities. SAE then used such data in statistical models to explain and forecast shifts in violent and nonviolent behavior in various groups.