Books & Book Chapters

2010 Taking Turns: A Theory and Model of Government-Dissident Interactions. Stephen M. Shellman. Saarbrucken: VDM Verlag Dr. Muller. ISBN: 978-3-369-18384-9.

1998 Values in Conflict: Local Government Response to Hate Crime. Haider-Markel, Donald P. and Sean P. O'Brien. In (ed.) Elaine B. Sharp Culture War and Local Politics. Lawrence, KS: University Press of Kansas.

Peer Reviewed Research Articles

2010 "Disaggregating Actors in Intrastate Conflict" Stephen M. Shellman, Clare Hatfield & Maggie Mills. Journal of Peace Research 47(1).

2010 "Crisis Early Warning and Decision Support: Contemporary Approaches and Thoughts on Future Research" Sean P. O'Brien. International Studies Review 12(1):87-104.

2009 "Methodological Developments in Nationalism, Ethnicity and Migration Research." Victor Asal, Stephen M. Shellman. International Studies Encyclopedia. ed. Robert A. Denemark.

2008 "The New School of Political Conflict & Terror: From Attributes to Behavior & Why Policymakers Will Care." Stephen M. Shellman and Will H. Moore. Perspectives on Terrorism 2(12): 3-10.

2008 "Coding Disaggregated Intrastate Conflict: Machine Processing the Behavior of Substate Actors Over Time and Space." Stephen M. Shellman. Political Analysis 16(4).

2008 "Supporting the Bomb: A Survey of Iranian Public Opinion." Stephen M. Shellman and Christine Fair. Contemporary Security Policy 25(3).

2008 "Consenting to a Child’s Jihad." Stephen M. Shellman, Victor Asal, and Christine Fair. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 31(11).

2007 "Whither Will They Go? A Global Study of Refugees’ Destinations, 1965-1995." Stephen M. Shellman and Will H. Moore. International Studies Quarterly 51(4).

2007 "Predicting Risk Factors Associated with Forced Migration: An Early Warning Model of Haitian Flight." Stephen M. Shellman and Brandon Stewart. Civil Wars, 9(2): 174-99.

2007 "Political Persecution or Economic Deprivation? A Time-Series Analysis of Haitian Migration to the United States." Stephen M. Shellman and Brandon Stewart. Conflict Management & Peace Science 24(2): 121-37.

2007 "Process Matters: Conflict & Cooperation in Sequential Government-Dissident Interactions." Stephen M. Shellman. Security Studies 15(4): 563-99.

2006 "Refugee or Internally Displaced? To Where Should One Flee?" Stephen M. Shellman and Will H. Moore. Comparative Political Studies 39(5): 599-622.

2006 "Do Simulations Enhance Student Learning? An Empirical Evaluation of an IR Simulation." Stephen M. Shellman and Kürsad Turan. Journal of Political Science Education 2(1): 19-32.

2006 "Leaders & Their Motivations: Explaining Government-Dissident Conflict-Cooperation Processes." Stephen M. Shellman. Conflict Management & Peace Science 23(1): 73-90.

2004 "Fear of Persecution: Forced Migration, 1952-1995." Stephen M. Shellman and Will H. Moore. Journal of Conflict Resolution 48(5): 723-745.

2004 "Time Series Intervals and Statistical Inference: The Effects of Temporal Aggregation on Event Data Analysis." Stephen M. Shellman. Political Analysis 12(1): 97-104.

2004 "Measuring the Intensity of Intranational Political Interactions Event Data: Two Interval Like Scales." Stephen M. Shellman. International Interactions 30(2): 109-141.

2002 "Anticipating the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly: An Early Warning Approach to Conflict and Instability Analysis." Sean P. O'Brien. Journal of Conflict Resolution 46(6):808-828.

2001 "The Two Presidencies 1984-1998: A Replication and Extension." Stephen M. Shellman and Scot Schraufnagel. Presidential Studies Quarterly 31(4): 699-707.

1998 "Fueling the Fire: Social and Political Correlates of Citizens Militia Activity." Sean P. O'Brien and Donald P. Haider-Markel. Social Science Quarterly 79(2):456-464.

1997 "Creating a Well-Regulated Militia: Policy Responses to Paramilitary Groups in the American States." Donald P. Haider-Markel and Sean P. O'Brien. Political Research Quarterly 50(3):551-565.

1996 "Foreign Policy Crises and the Resort to Terrorism: A Time-Series Analysis of Conflict Linkages." Sean P. O'Brien. Journal of Conflict Resolution 41(2):320-335. (reprinted in Global Terrorism [2008] by Brenda J. Lutz and James M. Lutz. SAGE Publications, London.)

US Government Reviewed Publications

2013 "Strategic Analysis Enterprises (SAE), Inc. Sentiment Analysis." Stephen M. Shellman. In Human Social Culture Behavior Modeling Program Newsletter, US Department of Defense, 14.

2010 "Instant Data, Just Add Dictionaries: Political Analysis Using Automated Event Data and Sentiment Coding." Phil Schrodt and Stephen M. Shellman. In Human Social Culture Behavior Modeling Program Newsletter, US Department of Defense, 6 (Summer).

2010 "Analyzing Political and Social Regional Stability with Statistics: Challenges and Opportunities." Stephen M. Shellman and Victor Asal. In Perspectives on Political and Social Regional Stability Impacted by Global Crises - A Social Science Context. US Government White Paper, US Department of Defense. Edited by Hriar Cabayan, Office of Secretary of Defense, et. al.

2009 "The Effects of Counter-Terror: Empirical Political Dynamics." With Victor Asal. White Paper, US Department of Defense. Edited by Laurie Fenstermacher, Air Force Research Laboratory.

2008 "An Integrated Statistical Modeling Approach for Predicting Rare Events: Statistical Analysis of WMD Terrorism."Larry Kuznar, Victor Asal, Karl Rethmeyer, Krishna Pattipati, Robert Popp, and Stephen M. Shellman. In Anticipating Rare Events: Can Acts of Terror, Use of Weapons of Mass Destruction or Other High Profile Acts be Anticipated? A Scientific Perspective on Problems, Pitfalls and Prospective Solutions. US Government White Paper. US Department of Defense. Edited by Nancy Chesser.

2003 "Analyzing Complex Threats for Operations and Readiness (ACTOR)." Sean P. O'Brien. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Military Operations Research Society Symposium. (Barchi Prize Winner).

Other Research Publications

2006 "Quantifying Violence and Nonviolence: Terrorism & Political Violence Datasets." E-Extreme Electronic Newsletter of the European Consortium for Political Research Standing Group on Extremism & Democracy.

SAE Staff Invited Presentations

2012 "Forecasting Political Violence in Africa." B. Levey, P. Bentley and S. Shellman. Presented at the Robert S. Strauss Center and U.S. Africa Command, Climate Change and African Political Stability (CCAPS) conference on Evolving Dynamics of Security in Africa: Assessing Diplomacy, Development, and Defense Responses, University of Texas, Austin, TX.

2011 Keynote Address, "Human Social Culture Behavior (HSCB) Modeling Program: Focus 2011." Sean P. O'Brien. Office of the Secretary of Defense, Chantilly, VA. February, 2010.

2010 "Modeling Dynamic Violence: Integrating Events Data Analysis and Agent-Based Modeling." Michael Findley, Stephen M. Shellman, and Joseph Young. The Minerva Initiative, National Defense University, September 16.

2010 Theme Panel Chair, "Modeling Techniques for Automated Predictions of Macro-Political Events." Sean P. O'Brien. Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, August 2010.

2010 Keynote Address, "Human Social Culture Behavior (HSCB) Modeling Program: Focus 2010." Sean P. O'Brien. Office of the Secretary of Defense, Chantilly, VA. February, 2010.

2009 "Fingerprinting Leading Indicators of WMD Terrorism." Kuznar, L.A., R. Popp, V. Asal. K. Rethemayer, K. Pattipati. S. Shellman. Proceedings of the 1009 AAAI Spring Symposium, Stanford University, Stanford, CA.

2009 Discussant, "Scientific Advances in Forecasting in International Relations" Sean P. O'Brien. Annual meeting of the International Studies Association, New York City, February 2009.

2008 "PERICLES: A New Multi-Lingual Events Coder." Stephen M. Shellman. Presented at the "Overcoming the Information Challenge in Federated Analysis: From Concept to Practice" Stephen M. Shellman, Brandon Stewart, Luke Davis and Hans Leonard.

2008 "Project Civil Strife: Machine Coded Event Data." Stephen M. Shellman. Presented at the Operating within the Human Dimension: the Collection/Analysis Challenge conference sponsored by DOD (Joint Staff, STRATCOM/GISC, DDRE, OUSDI, AS&C) and DHS. April 24-25.

2008 "The Rational Terrorist." Stephen M. Shellman. Terrorism Symposium, Shorter College, Rome, GA, March 4.

2008 "Modeling Terror and Repression."Presented at the Modeling and Visualizing Conflict Conference, sponsored by the US Department of Defense, STRATCOM, and Department of Homeland Security. January 23-25.

2008 "DARPA's Computational Social Science Portfolio" Sean P. O'Brien. Briefing to the Defense Science Board (DSB). Human Dynamics Task Force June, 4, 2008.

2007 Roundtable Panelist, "Computational Cultural Dynamics: What should it be?" Sean P. O'Brien. 1st International Conference on Computational Cultural Dynamics, University of Maryland August 27-28, 2007.

2007 "Computational Analysis in US Foreign and Defense Policy," Sean P. O'Brien. 1st International Conference on Computational Cultural Dynamics, University of Maryland August 27-28, 2007. (with Claudio Cioffi-Revilla).

2007 "Computational Social Science" Sean P. O'Brien. Speech delivered at the DARPA's 25th Systems and Technology Symposium, Anaheim, CA, August 2007.

2007 "How Have You Killed Lately? A Substitution Model of Domestic Terrorism in India 1980-2005." with Victor Asal. Columbia University International Politics Seminar, April 19.

2006 "Project Civil Strife: Political Violence and Terrorism Events Data Sets." American Political Science Association (APSA) Short Course on Conflict Data. Sponsored by the APSA Task Force on Political Violence and Terrorism. Philadelphia, PA, August 30.

2005 "Center for Army Analysis' Forecasting Capabilities" Sean P. O'Brien. Lecture delivered at Harvard University, March 14, 2005.

2004 "Applying Contemporary International Relations to National Security Issues: Forecasting Conflict and Instability." Sean P. O'Brien. Presentation delivered to the Department of Political Science, University of Kansas, May 2004.

2003 "Near-term Forecasts of Crisis and Instability Using Text-Based Events (NEAR-TERM FORECITE)." Sean P. O'Brien. Fifth Nuclear Stability Roundtable, co-sponsored by the U.S. Department of State, U.S. STRATCOM, Los Alamos National Laboratory, and the Defense Threat Reduction Agency. April, 2003.

2002 "Terrorism, Counter-Terrorism, and Civilian Pawns: Implications for Democracy in the 21st Century" Sean P. O'Brien. Lecture delivered at California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo, CA, January 2002.

2001 "Anticipating the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly: An Early Warning Approach to Conflict and Instability Analysis, 1975-2015." Sean P. O'Brien. Paper presented to the Research and Analysis Forum (RAF), U.S. Department of State, Verification and Compliance Bureau, December 2001.

2001 "Modeling Refugee and Internally Displaced Person Flows." Will H. Moore and Stephen M. Shellman. Presented at the United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR), Statistics Division. Geneva, Switzerland. June 11.

2001-2003 "Analyzing Complex Threats for Operations and Readiness" Sean P. O'Brien. Presented to:

• Conference on U.S.-Russian Confidence Building Measures, co-sponsored by Defense Threat Reduction Agency and the Naval Postgraduate School, Garmisch, Germany, June 2-5, 2003.
• Fourth Nuclear Stability Roundtable, co-sponsored by the U.S. Department of State, U.S. STRATCOM, Los Alamos National Laboratory, and the Defense Threat Reduction Agency, March 12-13, 2002.
• National Intelligence Council (NIC), Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), October 2001.
• The Instability Predictive Modeling Advanced Concept Technical Demonstration (ACTD) Workshop, co-sponsored by USCINCPAC and the Center of Excellence in Disaster Management and Humanitarian Assistance, Honolulu, HI, 22-24 May 2001.
• The seminar on Predicting Intentions: Preventing Operational and Strategic Surprise. Co-sponsored by Mr. Andrew Marshall, Director of Net Assessment, Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) and the Commander in Chief, U.S. Joint Forces Command (USJFCOM), Quantico, VA 6-8 March 2001.
• The Bilateral Workshop on Analysis Support to Peace Operations. Co-sponsored by Commander-in-Chief, U.S. Pacific Command (USCINCPAC) and the Australian Department of Defence, Defence Science and Technology Organisation (DSTO), Sydney Australia, November 14-16, 2000.

2001 "Terrorism in the 21st Century: Causes, Characteristics, and Controls." Sean P. O'Brien. Lecture delivered to Senior Science Society at the University of Wisconsin - Fox Valley, March 21, 2000.

1997 "Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, and Civilian Pawns: A Two-Level Theory and Evidence From Northern Ireland." Sean P. O'Brien. Paper presented at the conference on Applying Social Science Research to Contemporary International Problems hosted by the University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee/Marquette University Center for International Studies, Milwaukee, Wisconsin (August 1997).

Other Relevant SAE Staff Conference Presentations

2012 "Countering the Adversary" B. Levey, S. Shellman, P. Bentley. 4th International Conference on Applied Human Factors and Ergonomics (AHFE). San Francisco, CA July 21-25, 2012.

2012 "Improving ICEWS models: Forecasting SOUTHCOM Events of Interest Using Ensemble Methods" P. Bentley, S. Shellman, B. Levey. 4th International Conference on Applied Human Factors and Ergonomics (AHFE). San Francisco, CA July 21-25, 2012.

2012 "State of the Practice and Art in Sentiment Analysis" S. Shellman, M. Covington, M. Zangrilli. 4th International Conference on Applied Human Factors and Ergonomics (AHFE). San Francisco, CA July 21-25, 2012.

2011/2010 "Countering the Adversary: Effective Policies or a DIME a Dozen?." Stephen M. Shellman, Brian Levey and Hans Leonard. American Political Science Association Meetings. Also presented at the HSCB FOCUS 2011 Conference in Chantilly, VA February 8-10, 2011.

2010 "Modeling Dynamic Violence: Integrating Events Data Analysis and Agent- Based Modeling." Michael Findley, Stephen M. Shellman and Joseph Young. American Political Science Association Meetings.

2008 "Nickel & DIMEing the Adversary: Does it work or PMESII them off?" with Brandon M Stewart and Cale D. Horne. Presented at ISA in March, currently revising.

2008 "Supporting the Bomb: A Survey of Iranian Public Opinion." Christine Fair, Cale Horne and Stephen M. Shellman. Presented at International Studies Association annual meeting in San Francisco. March 26.

2008 "Regional Sticks: The Effects of President’s Rule on Regional Terrorism in India, 1980-2005." with Victor H. Asal & Brandon Stewart. Presented at Peace Science in November, currently revising.

2007 "Separation and Aggregation: How Our Theoretical and Operational Choices Affect the Inferences We Draw from Models of Civil Strife." Stephen M. Shellman, Clare Hatfield and Maggie Mills. Presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association, Chicago, Illinois, February 28-March 3.

2006 "Tipping Points and Turning Points: When Do States Care about Terrorism?" Gregory D. Miller and Stephen M. Shellman. Presented at the American Political Science Association's annual convention. September.

2006 "Media Generated Data: The Effects of Source Bias on Event Data Analysis." Stephen M. Shellman, Brandon Stewart and Andrew Reeves. Prepared for the International Studies Association annual convention. March 22-25.

Peer Reviewed Teaching/Instructional Articles

2006 "Confronting Global Issues: A Multi-purpose IR Simulation." with Kürsad Turan. Simulation & Gaming 37(1): 98-123.

2003 "Acute Crisis in Cyprus: A Multilateral Bargaining Simulation." with Kürsad Turan. Simulation & Gaming 34(2): 281-291.

2001 "Active Learning in Comparative Politics: A Mock German Election and Coalition Formation Simulation." PS: Political Science and Politics 34(4): 827-34.